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Investors want clarity as HSBC dithers on cash call |
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From Reuters Dealtalk
By Daisy Ku and Michael Flaherty
LONDON/HONG KONG - A rights issue of more than $10 billion is one option for HSBC (HSBA.L)(0005.HK) to remove uncertainty about its capital and leave it able to take advantage of Asian deals, and investors may prefer the bank to act now.
The world's biggest bank outside China could still sidestep a fundraising and opt to pay its dividend in shares or scrap its payout -- but several investors told Reuters they would support a rights issue and want management to act quickly.
"HSBC is being battered by the worries of a potential rights issue or a cut in dividend. The sooner they do the (rights issue), the better for the shares," said Tat Auyeung, a Hong Kong-based managing director of Apex Capital Management.
The dilemma facing HSBC is that it may be able to ride out the storm, but a delay may make any cashcall more dilutive and investors may prefer to stump up now.
"It's a massive thing at the moment because investors in the UK are totting up all the rights issues they are looking at and all the ones they could see and calculating that the supply of new cash for companies raising money could run out by the middle of the year," said Simon Maughan, analyst at MF Global.
A London-based equity capital markets banker said: "If HSBC comes to the conclusion that they need the capital, they better come to the market sooner rather than later."
HSBC reports its 2008 results on Mar. 2, and that is seen as the most likely delivery date for a rights issue of between $8 billion and $20 billion.
DIVIDEND CUT OR CASHCALL?
HSBC has traditionally been one of the best-capitalised banks in the world and has not raised capital, while its rivals have scrambled for cash as the credit crisis has deepened.
That has eroded HSBC's competitive advantage.
Its Tier 1 capital was 8.9 percent at end-September, above the European average and near the top of its targeted range of 7.5 percent to 9 percent.
Deutsche Bank analysts reckon that could fall to about 6 percent within two years, based on it having to write off as much as $45 billion on bad loans and a potential hit of $24 billion from writedowns on assets.
"I think it's quite possible and plausible that they would feel they need to raise some capital now as things economically, globally, have definitely got worse a lot faster than anybody anticipated," said Jane Coffey, head of equities at Royal London Asset Management, one of HSBC's top 25 investors.
"It would be prudent therefore to adjust your capital," she said, adding she would support an issue if it put forward a good case for needing it.
HSBC declined to comment ahead of its results.
Investors said a dividend cut or a rights issue is at least partly priced into the bank's share price.
HSBC's London-listed shares have lost one-third since mid-December, when the rights issue speculation intensified, just underperforming the broader European bank index, after strongly outperforming throughout 2008.
"If you are being beaten up for it anyway, maybe it makes sense to just go ahead and do it," one banker said, in regard to the damaging speculation about a fundraising.
"The size sounds somewhat daunting, but I suspect there will be enough investors out there who want it," said a Hong Kong-based fund manager who holds HSBC shares.
"If you are going to hold the financial institutions, in this market, I think HSBC is the one of choice".
Morgan Stanley analysts forecast HSBC should raise $20 billion, and said it could need $30 billion.
CLSA analysts reckon it will need $15 billion and to cut dividends.
Maughan said a mandatory scrip dividend issue could preserve enough cash for the bank, however.
HSBC could save about $7 billion by paying all its annual dividend in shares. It offers a scrip option, which typically is taken up by about a third of investors, although the take-up was down to 23 percent in 2005
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HSBC Holdings (Headquarters - London) HSBC is one of the largest banking and financial services organisations in the world. HSBC's international network comprises over 10,000 offices in 83 countries and territories in Europe, the Asia-Pacific region, the Americas, the Middle East and Africa. HSBC provides a comprehensive range of financial services: personal financial services; commercial banking; corporate, investment banking and markets; private banking; and other activities. With listings on the London, Hong Kong, New York, Paris and Bermuda stock exchanges, shares in HSBC Holdings plc are held by over 200,000 shareholders in some 100 countries and territories.
Latest News
Knight Vinke Asset Management LLC 489 Fifth Avenue New York, NY 10017 Tel: 212 660 5720 Fax: 212 660 5721 www.knightvinke.com Statement by Knight Vinke Asset Management concerning HSBC and its decision to write off its investment in Household International New York, NY, 2nd March 2009. The Board of HSBC has finally accepted that its catastrophic investment in Household International, not long ago described by the Chief Executive as a “dream portfolio”, is worthless. The investment has now been fully written off and the business is being shut down. Despite this, HSBC continues to carry its U.S. sub‐prime loan assets at $ 34 billion more than their reported fair value. If HSBC were ever to write these assets down to their fair value, there are a further $ 34 billion of losses to be taken. We believe that this is increasingly likely given that Household is effectively no longer a going concern and that market conditions in the United States continue to deteriorate. The Board is now asking shareholders to invest a massive $ 18 billion in HSBC. What assurances can it give to the market that this $ 18 billion of additional capital will not go to Household’s lenders – who, from a contractual point of view, have no legal recourse to HSBC? Knight Vinke, an institutional asset manager, has for two years been calling on HSBC to exit from the U.S. sub‐prime market, which is taking up huge amounts of management time and financial resources, and to focus more on markets where it has true comparative advantage. It has also called for greater board independence and for a compensation structure that better aligns shareholder and management interests. Today’s announcement vindicates its campaign. Press Contact details: David Trenchard, Tulchan Group: +44 207 353 4200 Readmore | In 2008, the top five earners at HSBC were paid a total of US$ 61.567 million with the highest earner receiving £ 13.7 million with the second highest earner receiving over £ 11 million.Employee compensation and benefits Note 8 on the Financial Statements gives details about employee compensation and benefits including pension plans.Set out below is information in respect of the five individuals whose emoluments were the highest in HSBC for the year ended 31 December 2008. Emoluments of 5 highest paid employees (£'000) ... Readmore | 02 March 2009Profitable business model Pre-tax profit for 2008, excluding goodwill impairment, of US$19.9 billion, down 18 per cent. On a reported basis, pre-tax profit was US$9.3 billion, down 62 per cent. Diversified business model delivers profits in every region except North America and every customer group except Personal Financial Services. Earnings per ordinary share excluding goodwill impairment down 18 per cent to US$1.36 (2007: US$1.65). On a reported basis, earnings per share was US$0.47, down 72 per cent (2007: US$1.65).Maintaining our traditional financial strength Capital generation remains strong. Tier 1 ratio of 8.3 per cent and total capital ratio... Readmore | From Reuters Dealtalk By Daisy Ku and Michael Flaherty LONDON/HONG KONG - A rights issue of more than $10 billion is one option for HSBC (HSBA.L)(0005.HK) to remove uncertainty about its capital and leave it able to take advantage of Asian deals, and investors may prefer the bank to act now. The world's biggest bank outside China could still sidestep a fundraising and opt to pay its dividend in shares or scrap its payout -- but several investors told Reuters they would support a rights issue and want management to act quickly. "HSBC is being battered by the worries of... Readmore | STATEMENT FROM KNIGHT VINKE ON HSBC’S NEED FOR ADDITIONAL CAPITAL PUBLICATION OF LETTER FROM PROFESSORS FRANKS AND ACHARYA 18th January 2009 Knight Vinke notes the recent research reports issued by Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs regarding HSBC’s need for a very substantial rights’ issue. This could be the largest rights’ issue ever made in the United Kingdom. It also notes comments made about Morgan Stanley’s research by the sales desks of UBS, Citigroup and Nomura. We agree with Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs that HSBC has a substantial and worsening capital shortfall. As long term shareholders of HSBC, we wish to make the following observations: 1. As... Readmore | | Show options |
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HSBC Group – Recent Events
Sub-prime ExposureOn 7 February 2007, HSBC Group issued a Trading Update Statement. The statement, referred to by many as a “Profit Warning”, commented on the challenges of the Mortgage Services operations on HSBC Finance Corporation. The statement explained that the slowing house price growth was being reflected in the accelerated delinquency trends across the US sub-prime mortgage market. As a result the Group expected to increase impairment and other credit risk provisions for 2006 to a level of 20% above consensus estimates. In the Financial Statements for 2006, issued in March 2007, the Group confirmed that the impairment charges for the US operations rose by US$ 1.880 billion to US$ 6.796 billion. In the Financial Statements for 2007, issued in March 2008, the Group confirmed that the impairment charges for the US operation had risen by US$ 5.360 billion to US$ 12.156 billion, resulting in a profit for the year of only US$ 91 million for the entire US operations (US$ 4.668 billion in 2006). HSBC acquired Household Finance Corporation for US$ 14 billion in 2003.Activist Investor - Knight Vinke Asset Management LLC (KVAM)Following on from a meeting in June 2007 with HSBC Group’s Finance Director, KVAM wrote to the HSBC Board of Directors in September 2007. The letter highlighted KVAM’s concern over strategy, asset allocation, governance, share price performance and HSBC’s sub-prime exposure. It stated a request for an independent strategic review. In November 2007, KVAM restated its six key areas of concern: 1 Perennial stock market underperformance compared to peers. 2 Pursuit of geographic diversification instead of comparative advantage. 3 Lack of scale in key markets – UK, USA and France. 4 Good position in Hong Kong, but franchise at risk due to lack of credible China strategy. 5 Lack of credible CIBM strategy – trading assets now tie up a third of the group balance sheet. 6 Strategy unchallenged due to poor Board structure and lack of economic incentives for senior executives to do so. HSBC rigorously defended itself on all points raised by KMAM including that they had already reviewed their strategy and therefore their was no need for an independent review.
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